Full Product Details

0 items | £0.00

Description The "Other Societies" price applies to IAVCEI members only. Statistics in Volcanology is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today’s leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions. Specific topics include the use of expert elicitation and Bayesian methods in eruption forecasting, statistical models of temporal and spatial patterns of volcanic activity, analysis of time series in volcano seismology, probabilistic hazard assessment, and assessment of numerical models using robust statistical methods. Also provided are comprehensive overviews of volcanic phenomena, and a full glossary of both volcanological and statistical terms.   Statistics in Volcanology is essential reading for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and research scientists interested in this multidisciplinary field.

Contents Volcanic process modelling and statistical data, H M Mader • Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions, W P Aspinall • A quantitative model for volcanic hazard assessment, W Marzocchi, L Sandri and C Furlan • What is the probability of explosive eruption at a long-dormant volcano? C B Connor, A R McBirney and C Furlan • Extreme value methods for modelling historical series of large volcanic magnitudes, S G Coles and R S J Sparks • Applying statistical analysis to understanding the dynamics of volcanic eruptions, N R Varley, J Johnson, M Ruiz, G Reyes and K Martin • Forecasting future spatial distribution of volcanoes: an example from Armenia, J N Weller, A J Martin, C B Connor, L J Connor and A Karakhanian • Estimation of volcanic hazards using geostatistical models, O Jaquet and R Carniel • The contingency table: a powerful tool of multivariate statistics, M Hellweg and D  Seidl • The Gutenberg-Richter law: assumptions, limitations and interpretations, P Palacios, I Molina and M Segovia   • Stationary and non-stationary time series, G P Nason • New approaches to volcanic time series analysis, P C Young • Signal classification by wavelet-based Hidden Markov Models: applications to seismic signals of volcanic origin, P Alasonati, J Wassermann M Ohrnberger • Magma memory recorded by statistics of volcanic explosions at the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, O Jaquet, R S J Sparks and R Carniel • Solution and parametric study of a combined conduit and eruption column model, M Diez • Transient models of conduit flows during volcanic eruptions, O Melnik and R S J  Sparks • Multi-parameter monitoring and modelling of volcanic processes, J Neuberg • Inversion is the key to dispersion: understanding eruption dynamics by inverting tephra fallout, L J Connor and C B Connor • Probabilistic modelling of tephra dispersion, C Bonadonna

Reviews

The aim of this book is to demonstrate that volcanology is now ready to move from description,
observation, and process-oriented research into data mining and evaluation using statistical methods
The book is completed by a well-organized glossary, which is really helpful for the reader, as the terminology of volcanologists can be quite confusing. The editors wisely decided against a complete literature index; instead, the cited literature and very valuable hints for "further readings"
are placed at the end of each chapter.

The book is certainly a valuable contribution for specialists in volcanology. My main concern is that the premise to be in possession of an adequate understanding of volcanic processes is questionable. The big picture drawn on volcanic eruptions is certainly not backed up completely by the international community of volcanologists. The recent emption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjoll, as an example, demonstrates the gaps in our knowledge (and in the philosophy of the book). External forcing of volcanic eruptions by water, ice, wet sediments, and (not the least) by tectonics and erosion are not adequately discussed. All articles themselves are well written and illustrated and provide very
useful insight into strengths and weaknesses of statistical methods. They do, however, not integrate in such way that a basic volume for students of geosciences emerges.

In summary, the book is recommended as a reader for specialists and advanced students, as it provides valuable information on the statistical treatment of observational and model-based data aiming at more precise evaluation and forecasting of volcanic eruptions. I would buy this book with my personal money.

Review By Bernd Zimanowski, Universitat Wurzburg

Review Featured in Bull Volcanol (2010) 72:887

This review was submitted by:
Mrs Julie Webster
01 August 2011